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6. FY2003 Performance Improvement Strategies
Major postal programs for maintaining and improving postal performance have been described earlier in the Comprehensive Statement on Postal Operations.
7. Resources and Requirements
The following projections were prepared during the summer of 2001 and have been submitted to the Postal Rate Commission as part of the Postal Service’s request for a change in postage rates and fees. Subsequent to the preparation of this material, the general economic outlook became worse, and the U.S. economy entered into a recession in March 2001, with a recovery not foreseen until 2003. In addition, the events of September 11 and the subsequent decline in mail revenue led to an unprecedented decline of $876 million in the first quarter of FY 2002 (concluding November 30).
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TABLE 4.5 PRELIMINARY FY2003 REVENUE PROJECTIONS |
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REVENUE CATAGORY |
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FY2001 ACTUAL ($BIL) |
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FY2002 PROJECTED ($BIL) |
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FY2003 PROJECTED ($BIL) |
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First-Class Mail |
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35.9 |
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36.4 |
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39.0 |
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Priority Mail |
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4.9 |
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5.5 |
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6.2 |
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Express Mail |
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1.0 |
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1.1 |
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1.1 |
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Periodicals |
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2.2 |
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2.4 |
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2.6 |
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Standard |
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15.7 |
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16.7 |
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18.6 |
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Package Services |
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2.0 |
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2.1 |
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2.2 |
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International |
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1.7 |
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1.8 |
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1.9 |
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Special Services |
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2.3 |
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2.7 |
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3.1 |
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Other |
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0.1 |
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0.1 |
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0.1 |
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TOTAL |
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65.8 |
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68.8 |
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74.8 |
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Note: These projections reflect assumptions included in Postal Service Rate Case Docket No. R2001-1 and reflect pre-September 11th estimates.
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As a result, the forecast for postal revenue will be revised downward substantially. At the same time, the preliminary costs submitted to the Postal Rate Commission are also likely to be revised upward substantially as a result of the expected costs of providing mail security.
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TABLE 4.6 PRELIMINARY FY2003 EXPENSE PROJECTIONS |
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REVENUE CATAGORY |
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FY2001 ACTUAL ($BIL) |
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FY2002 PROJECTED ($BIL) |
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FY2003 PROJECTED ($BIL) |
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Personnel |
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Compensation |
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38.0 |
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39.6 |
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40.8 |
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Benefits |
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13.4 |
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13.9 |
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14.4 |
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Non-Personnel |
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Transportation |
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5.1 |
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5.2 |
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5.1 |
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Supplies and Services |
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3.3 |
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2.5 |
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2.7 |
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Building Occupancy |
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1.6 |
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1.8 |
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1.8 |
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Depreciation/Write-Offs |
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2.2 |
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2.5 |
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2.7 |
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Interest Expense |
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Deferred Retirement
Liability |
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1.6 |
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1.6 |
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1.7 |
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Borrowing |
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0.3 |
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0.3 |
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0.4 |
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Other |
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2.0 |
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1.8 |
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1.8 |
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Rate Case Contingency |
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- |
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- |
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2.2 |
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TOTAL |
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67.5 |
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70.2 |
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74.2 |
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Note: These projections reflect assumptions included in Postal Service Rate Case Docket No. R2001-1 and reflect pre-September 11th estimates.
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The Postal Service is currently analyzing the results of recent labor arbitration awards, and the results could materially affect the cost projections. Updated forecasts from the official model are not available for developing the Preliminary Performance Plan.
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